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Futures Slide Amid Euro, Cable Rout; Dollar Soars To 2018 High
Stocks reversed earlier gains, turning lower in Europe as U.S. futures pared as many as 20 points of upside in overnight trading before turning lower on Monday, following a mixed session across most of Asia as investors weighed the outlook for equities after a roller coaster few weeks. Volumes were subdued with many banks closed for Veteran's Day in the US. Futures on the Nasdaq were flat after large-cap tech shares on Friday dragged the gauge down 1.7%. Europe saw a sharp selloff in both the EUR and GBP this morning, with the EURUSD breaching 1.1300 to the downside, the lowest print since July 2017 as Brexit deal momentum once again faded, while the Italian budget negotiation failed to make progress ahead of another looming deadline. For the euro, Italy was the main focus, with Rome facing a Tuesday deadline to submit a revised budget to the EU, though it has so far refused to cut the draft budget deficit, setting the stage for a collision with Brussels. Bernd Berg, strategist at Woodman Asset Management, predicted the euro would tumble below $1.10 from the current $1.126 “as renewed eurozone and Brexit angst and a diverging economic outlook with a strong U.S. economy versus a weakening eurozone economy will trigger further euro selling pressure.” The drop in Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was led by household goods and real estate shares. Major European indices were mixed, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) outperformed thanks to the weaker pound and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil. Italian bonds fell ahead of supply and the government’s deadline to resubmit its 2019 budget on Tuesday where there appeared to be no progress, while Bunds follow gilts higher on a lack of progress in the Brexit talks; The 10y spread to Germany widened 4bps to 303bps while Bund gains were spurred by gilts, which outperform by 3bps as the latest Brexit impasse lowers the chances of a BOE rate hike before November 2019, even as the next 25bps BOE hike remains fully priced in for November 2019. Markets were also spooked by reports that Banca Carige would need around 400 million euros ($451 million) to plug a hole in its capital base and Italy’s deposit protection fund could fill only part of it. CRG.IM was halted, limited down as a result. That raises the specter of a banking crisis in the euro zone’s third-biggest economy, keeping Italy’s bond yield spread over Germany - the risk premium attached to Italian assets - around the psychologically key 300 basis-point mark. Italian bank shares fell 0.6 percent Earlier in the session, the MSCI Asia equities index also dropped, though shares in Japan and Hong Kong finished in a tight range, while Chinese stocks - for once - bucked the trend closing 1.2% higher. While Shanghai was lifted over one percent by regulators’ promise to simplify share buybacks, MSCI’s world equity index was down 0.3% and Asian markets broadly weakened following Friday’s weak Wall Street close. China closed in the green even as investors fretted about signs of slowing growth in China where e-commerce giant Alibaba was the latest to raise alarm bells, with the slowest ever annual sales growth during its Singles Day shopping event. Australia's ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. As noted earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales. With Asia mixed and European risk assets sliding, the Bloomberg dollar index printed fresh YTD highs: “King dollar has staged a return,” Credit Agricole's FX strategist Valentin Marinov said, adding that investors had piled back into the dollar after last week’s Fed meeting confirmed a rate-tightening path. "Euro and pound are both hurt by political risk and that is aggravating underperformance versus the dollar,” Marinov added. Speculators’ net long dollar positions rose last week to the highest since January 2016, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. The pound slumped, dropping below $1.29 for the first time in more than a week following a report that four more U.K. government ministers are on the brink of resigning over Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans, and that May was forced to abandon plans for an emergency cabinet meeting to approve a Brexit agreement, the Independent news website reported, stoking fears that the government might not be able to secure a deal that satisfied both the European Union and members of the ruling party. The opposition Labour Party said that if May’s Brexit deal was voted down in parliament, it would push for a national election and possibly also another referendum. The latest futures data showed net short sterling positions registered their biggest weekly rise in 1-1/2 months. Deutsche Bank analysts, however, predicted more pain, telling clients: “not enough risk is priced into sterling given the parliamentary problems ahead”. The other big move was in commodities, where Saudi Arabia’s energy minister took some pressure off last week’s oil price drop, saying on Sunday that Riyadh could reduce supply to world markets by 500,000 barrels per day in December, a global reduction of about 0.5 percent. That jolted Brent crude futures up more than 2% to a high of $71.88 per barrel. However, the supply cut may prove to be a temporary solution to falling prices as global growth slows, with two of the world’s biggest economies - Germany and Japan - expected to report a contraction in output in coming days. “Supply-side surprises appear to be the main culprit, but concern that global demand is slowing may also be creeping into markets and weighing on risk appetite,” the ANZ analysts said. Looking ahead, Treasuries aren’t trading due to Veterans’ Day holiday. UGI Corp. and AXA Equitable are among scheduled earnings Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures little changed at 2,778.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 364.86
MXAP down 0.4% to 151.66
MXAPJ down 0.5% to 481.78
Nikkei up 0.09% to 22,269.88
Topix down 0.06% to 1,671.95
Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 25,633.18
Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 2,630.52
Sensex down 0.8% to 34,867.39
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,941.30
Kospi down 0.3% to 2,080.44
German 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.387%
Euro down 0.7% to $1.1256
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $71.05/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.033%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.586%
Brent Futures up 1.3% to $71.06/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,207.13
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.6% to 97.47
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
As well as increasing domestic pressure on May to ditch her Brexit plan or face defeat in Parliament, EU ministers in Brussels on Monday didn’t fix a specific date for an extraordinary summit. There’s still a need for more clarity from the U.K. before the bloc’s leaders convene to sign off a deal, an EU official said
Saudi Arabia expressed the need for oil producers to cut 1 million barrels a day from October levels and announced fewer shipments from next month, as OPEC and its allies began laying the groundwork to reduce oil supply in 2019, reversing an almost year-long expansion
China signaled tougher management of the yuan, dropping a phrase underlining the importance of market forces from a key policy report for the first time in five years
The most destructive series of wildfires in California history have killed at least 31 people and forced tens of thousands more to evacuate, officials said, as firefighters struggled to gain control in swirling winds
President Donald Trump left World War I commemorations in France after a weekend that exposed tensions with U.S. allies in Europe over his decision to pull out of the 1987 Intermediate- range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. By the time he flew home on Sunday he appeared isolated and, by some, scorned
Asian equity markets eventually traded mixed but with gains limited as some cautiousness lingered from the uninspiring performance on Wall St last Friday, where ongoing global growth concerns and continued declines in commodities weighed on sentiment. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) both recovered from the early declines and traded marginally positive although weakness in tech and financials capped gains in Australia, while recent flows into JPY restricted upside for the Japanese benchmark. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were initially lower amid growth and trade-related uncertainty, while the PBoC also recently noted that China’s economy is under increasing downward pressure. However, Chinese markets then recovered as officials continued to pledge measures to support businesses including wider tax cuts and with China also upbeat following record-breaking Singles Day sales. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with price action contained as pressure from the improvement in regional sentiment was counterbalanced by the BoJ presence in the market. Top Asia News - SoftBank to Raise $21 Billion in Wireless IPO to Invest More - Pilot Grounded Before Delhi-London Flight for Failing Booze Test - China’s LVMH Wannabe to Slow M&AAfter $4 Billion Spree Major European indices have turned lower, with Germany’s DAX (-0.8%) lagging, weighed on by Infineon (-5.3%) following a projected revenue decline and SAP (-3.2%) after the company stated they are taking over Qualtrics International. UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.2%) is outperforming amid currency effects and as several big names are in the green (BHP +2.8%, Shire +2.3%, Anglo American +2.0%) outweighing the significant losses for British American Tobacco (-9.1%) and Imperial Brands (-4.1%) following reports of FDA commissioner pursuing a ban on menthol cigarettes. Similarly, sectors are mixed with IT names lagging and energy names outperforming, with FTSE giant BP (+1.8%) benefiting from the rebound in oil. In terms of individual equities, Telecom Italia (+4.6%) are leading the Stoxx 600 after reports in Italian press that the Italian government are pushing a fibre deal with the Co. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (+3.4%) rose to the top of the UK benchmark following the completion of a share-buyback programme. Top European News
Merkel Bid to Make Germany Inc. World Champion Hits EU Snags
Italy’s Industry Output Drop Makes It Harder to Convince EU
Hedge Fund Wins as European Luxury Goods Hit a Wall in China
Cerberus Plans to Buy Spain’s Altamira, Solvia: Expansion
In FX, the Dollar is firmly back in the ascendency, albeit partly due to underperformance in major counterparts due to specific bearish factors. However, the DXY has extended recovery gains beyond 97.000 and through its previous ytd peak to top out just shy of 97.600 at 97.583, with bulls now eyeing relatively strong Fib resistance around 97.871 ahead of 98.000.
GBP- More Brexit-related weakness in Sterling has tipped Cable through another big figure, and just under 1.2850 at one stage, while EuGbp has rebounded further from recent sub-0.8700 lows towards 0.8775 on latest threats of revolt within the UK Government and time running out fast to reach a withdrawal deal with the EU. From a technical perspective, nearest support in Cable comes in around 1.2810, which coincides with a Fib and decent option expiry interest.
EUR- The single currency is also under considerable pressure, and after triggering stops at 1.1300 vs the Greenback, losses accumulated quickly to 1.1250 where hefty bids stalled further downside for a while. The catalyst, ongoing Italian-EU budget angst ahead of Tuesday’s deadline for the Government to resubmit a fiscal plan, and another meeting between key Roman officials later today. Note also, 1.1 bn option expiries roll off at the 1.1250 strike, with the same size capping any rebounds to 1.1300.
CHF/AUD- Both around 0.4-0.45% weaker vs a generally bid Usd, with the France testing 1.1000 and Aud back below 0.7200 amidst renewed weakness in the Yuan.
NZD- The Kiwi is holding up moderately better than its antipodean peer, as Nzd/Usd maintains 0.6700+ status (just) and the Aud/Nzd cross retests support/bids around 1.0700.
CAD/JPY- Relative outperformers, or at least keeping pace with the Usd as the Loonie pivots 1.3200 and derives underlying support from a rebound in oil prices, while the latter pares losses from circa 114.20 to just above 114.00 due to its greater safe-haven allure.
EM- Broad declines in regional currencies vs the resurgent Dollar, but with Usd/Try slipping back from 5.5000+ levels in wake of Turkish current account data revealing another y/y improvement.
In commodities, WTI (+0.4%) and Brent (+1.0%) bounced back with a vengeance as markets had the first opportunity to digest developments from the JMMC meeting during the weekend. The complex was on track for the longest losing streak since 1984, before Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih said the kingdom plans to reduce oil supply by 500K BPD in December due to a seasonal demand decline. Meanwhile, the JMMC decided not to take decisions on market adjustments on Sunday, with UAE’s Energy Minister noting that 2019 will require a change in OPEC strategy, adding that the new strategy is definitely not going to involve hiking output. Furthermore, in early European trade, the Kuwaiti Oil Minister stated that oil exporters discussed some kind of supply cut for next year but no volume was mentioned. Note: weekly API and DoE inventory data have been pushed back by a day due to US Veterans’ day. Elsewhere, gold (-0.1%) fell to levels last seen in mid-October as the yellow metal tracked USD moves with the DXY reaching new YTD highs in early European trade. Meanwhile, copper is taking a breather from the recent sell-off and nickel extended losses to hit 11-month lows, pressured by concerns of slowing Chinese demand for steel. At the weekend JMMC meeting, the committee decided not to take decisions on market adjustment, while Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih said it is too premature for OPEC to discuss production cuts but stated that Saudi will reduce oil supply by 500k bpd in December amid seasonal decline in demand. US Event Calendar
Nothing major scheduled due to Veterans' Day holiday
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to a new week and one where Brexit seems likely to grab a disproportional amount of the headlines. As I was scouring the weekend papers for news on this bewildering subject I stumbled across an article that innocently said that the British and the Irish are the top two countries in the EU for the percentage of the population that drink alcohol least once a week. It felt quite apt given the current situation. Also in the same Eurostat survey it suggested that the Dutch are the least likely to eat fruit and veg every day which given how tall they are perhaps dispels the myth that you need them! The Italians are one of the worst for amounts of exercise (Scandis generally the best) but they have the skinniest population. If anyone in Italy can give me the secret of that equation I’d be delighted to hear it. It must be the Mediterranean diet! Talking of Brexit and Italy, two of the main highlights for this week are likely to be the increasingly cul-de-sac Brexit scenarios being wrestled and the deadline for Italy to respond to the EU’s budget deficit demands tomorrow. Data-wise we have CPI reports in the US and Europe as well as Q3 GDP in the latter. Also worth watching is Oil which is in the midst of what is currently a record (daily data to 1983) 10-day successive slump in price. After an OPEC get together yesterday Saudi Arabia signalled that it will reduce oil exports by as much as half a million barrels a day in December as producers increasingly worry about oversupply in 2019. It’ll be interesting if they can persuade others to join them ahead of next month’s semi-annual full gathering. Oil prices (Brent +1.68% and WTI +1.21%) are up this morning on the back of this news. Can it finally close higher today and buck the two week trend? Brexit feels like its entering a crucial stretch and Friday was a bad day for the UK government with the weekend headlines not offering much additional joy. Pro-remain Tory MP Jo Johnson resigned and suggested he wouldn’t support the deal in its current form. The arithmetic around any deal passing through Parliament was already challenging enough without losing pro-remain Conservatives. The weekend media suggests there could be others refusing to vote in favour along those lines with the Sunday Times suggesting four such proremain Government resignations are possible. Basically the deal as it stands is being criticised by both remain and leave Conservatives and also by the DUP. Meanwhile the Labour Party opposition is highly unlikely to vote for it. So a deal being reached with the EU still seems the easy part of the equation. Sterling is down -0.5% in Asia this morning after falling -0.67% on Friday with virtually all of it after the resignation. As a reminder the DB house view is that not enough risk is priced into sterling given the Parliamentary problems ahead. Cabinet ministers have apparently been seeing the proposed text of the deal with the EU over the last few days (seemingly without the Irish section not yet availble) and if PM May can win their approval we could see a formal cabinet meeting early this week to formalise the deal before May makes a statement to the House of Commons. The situation is extremely fluid however especially with the increased backlash internally within the government and with the Irish border issue still outstanding. So these dates could easily (and seem likely to us to) be pushed back. How we get out of this cul-de-sac is very unclear. Moving onto Italy, the government is due to present its new 2019 budget to the EU by tomorrow after being ask to resubmit. That said, Italy has reiterated that it won’t change its 2.4% deficit target for 2019 so it’s not clear what will change. As for US CPI on Wednesday the consensus is for yet another +0.2% mom core reading - the 37th month in a row with such a forecast. The annual rate should however hold at +2.2% yoy – a level that the Fed should feel comfortable with and not change path. In Europe we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany (Tuesday), France, Spain and UK (Wednesday), and the broader Euro Area (Friday). A first look at Q3 GDP in Europe and Germany (Wednesday) will also be worth a close watch. The rest of the week ahead is at the end. This morning in Asia, markets have started the week with a mixed note with the Nikkei and Hang Seng both trading flat, Shanghai Comp (+0.8%) is up while the Kospi (-0.3%) is down. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (+0.4%) are pointing towards a positive start. It is worth noting that today is Veterans Day in the US. The US equity market will remain open but there is a recommended full market close for the Treasury market. Global equities were mixed last week, with US indexes mostly advancing after the US elections but emerging markets underperforming. The DOW led gains and had its best week since March, rallying +2.84% (-0.77% on Friday though), while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ gained +2.11% and +1.06% (-0.94% and -1.67% Friday) respectively. The NYFANG index fell -1.35% (-1.77% Friday) as tech continues to underperform. In Europe, the STOXX 600 advanced +0.46% (-0.37% Friday), though sectors exposed to China lagged with autos and basic resources down -4.38% and -2.21% (-1.89% and -3.41% Friday) respectively. EM equities fell -2.50% overall (-1.85% Friday) while indices in China underperformed with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite retreating -3.34% and -2.90% (-2.39% and -1.39% Friday) respectively. In fixed income, 10-year Treasuries touched a new 8-year high of 3.237% before retracing slightly, ending the week -2.7bps lower (-5.2bps Friday) at 3.182% while Bunds remained in their recent range and fell -2.1bps on the week (-5.0bps Friday). The US granting of Iran sanctions waivers to eight countries was a big development last week. They will be able to continue importing limited quantities of oil from Iran without running afoul of US laws, boosting the global supply of oil. WTI crude oil prices slid -5.21% (-1.35% Friday), for their tenth consecutive daily loss, the longest such streak on record with daily data going back to 1983. Brent fell -4.30% in unison (-1.34% Friday) though the spread between the two contracts remains near recent wides around $9.85 per barrel. With it being Veterans Day in the US (US stock market open but bond market is closed), it's a quiet start to the week. In Europe, we get France's October Bank of France industry sentiment index. There is no data of note in the US. Away from this, the Fed's Daly is due to speak on the economic outlook while the ECB's Lautenschlaeger, de Guindos and Nouy are also scheduled to speak. EU general-affairs ministers will discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations followed by a press briefing from the EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier. The EC President Juncker will give opening remarks at an economic conference on “Where is Europe headed?”
Global Markets Rebound On Renewed Trade Hopes, Oil Slides For Record 12th Day
After Monday's vicious Veteran's Day selloff, which took place with the cash bond market closed, world markets have regained their footing as European stocks and S&P 500 futures modestly higher, recovering some of the previous session’s losses on renewed hopes (how many times have we heard this already) for progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute following a report that China's vice premier Liu He is meeting Steven Mnuchin in DC, even as Asian shares dropped overall, led by Japan's 2.1% drop as tech stocks were hit on iPhone demand fears. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index rose for the first time in three days, with telecoms leading the way after Vodafone announced better than expected quarterly results, although the index was off its earlier highs. Contracts on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 were all firmer, and after sliding as low as 2,720 on Monday, S&P futures were 0.6% higher. Focusing on Europe, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. No material changes are expected. According to Deutsche Bank, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now any grand bargain is far away. Earlier, the Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Other Asian indexes fared less well, and slid with Apple suppliers under pressure after the iPhone maker fell on signs of a deteriorating sales outlook. Meanwhile, underwhelming Chinese new loan data, ongoing Brexit concerns and Italian jitters have tempered enthusiasm. Germany's DAX outperforms peers this morning, while Italy's FTSE MIB traded mixed ahead of today's budget proposal deadline while local Italian banks are managing small gains. Even as risk assets enjoyed a modest rebound, the commodity rout continued as WTI fell for a twelfth day, the longest losing streak on record after Trump criticized top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia’s plan to cut output, and was headed for its lowest close of 2018. Treasuries climbed even as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from an 18-month high as traders took profit on the greenback. The yen reversed to a loss as risk appetite slowly grew. The Britain’s pound pared some losses from the past three days after Prime Minister Theresa May said talks with the European Union were in the “endgame” and data showing U.K. wage growth accelerated. Elsewhere, the euro recovered from its weakest against the dollar since June 2017, with Italy due to resubmit its budget. The country’s bonds pared some losses after a debt auction. Emerging market equities and currencies were steady. In a curious development overnight, major state-owned Chinese banks were seen selling dollars at around 6.97 per dollar in the onshore spot foreign exchange market in early trade on Tuesday, traders told Bloomberg in the latest attempt by Beijing to arrest sharp losses in the local currency. The onshore spot market opened at 6.9681 per dollar, weakening to a low of 6.9703 at one point in early deals. “Big banks were selling (dollars) to defend the yuan,” said one of the traders. Traders suspect the authorities are keen to prevent the yuan from weakening too sharply before U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping’s meeting later this month. So is the selling over for now? With trade worries hanging over markets for months and clouding the economic outlook, the Liu He came at an appropriate time, while comments from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Singapore Tuesday hinted at a more optimistic outlook; even so sentiment remains fragile as the Fed prepares to hike rates in just over a month. “We always talk about that proverbial wall of worry and that wall right now is pretty high,” David Kudla, chief executive officer of Mainstay Capital Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “We have the issues in China with the growth concerns there, we have the issues in Europe with the battle between Italy and the EU, the U.K. getting ready for Brexit. There is some guidance lower on earnings, and a Federal Reserve that is going to raise rates.” In other news, Bloomberg reported that the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House which are undergoing interagency review and are sign of US administration's increasing frustration at EU and Japan over lack of progress on auto trade issues, while the Section 232 recommendations will be discussed at White House trade meeting on Tuesday. In the latest Brexit news, PM May said Brexit talks are now reaching their "endgame" and that both sides working hard to reach an agreement but added that significant issues still remain and that the government will not accept a deal at any cost. Furthermore, there were reports that UK PM May had rejected the latest draft Brexit deal with the EU as it didn’t provide a clear exit from the customs union if the EU began acting in bad faith in discussions regarding a future trade agreement. Expected data include NFIB Small Business Optimism and monthly budget statement. Home Depot and Tyson are among companies reporting earnings. Market Snapshot
S&P500 futures up 0.4% to 2,737.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 364.03
MXAP down 1% to 150.18
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 480.47
Nikkei down 2.1% to 21,810.52
Topix down 2% to 1,638.45
Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 25,792.87
Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,654.88
Sensex up 0.8% to 35,083.73
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.8% to 5,834.23
Kospi down 0.4% to 2,071.23
German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.395%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1239
Brent Futures down 1.3% to $69.21/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 3.066%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.607%
Brent futures down 2.2% to $68.57/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,197.54
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.63
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He have resumed talks on trade, and a potential Washington visit by Liu is being considered before the nations’ top leaders meet later this month
Goldman Sachs downward slide on a multibillion-dollar Malaysian fraud culminated Monday with Goldman’s shares having their biggest drop since 2011
President Donald Trump’s hardening line on immigration sets him on a collision course with House Democrats that is likely to shape the next presidential campaign.
Brexit negotiators are working through the night in an effort to reach a deal, but the final stage of the talks is proving “immensely difficult,” U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said
Italy’s government may offer the European Commission a minor concession when it resubmits its budget after an unprecedented rejection last month
Major suppliers to Apple Inc.’s iPhone fell Tuesday as investors fretted that one of the most important product lines in the technology sector was seeing weak demand
Major Asian equity markets mostly followed suit to the sell-off on Wall Street where tech led the declines after Apple shares dropped 5% following an outlook cut by supplier Lumentum Holdings and with energy names hit again after oil posted an 11th consecutive decline. ASX 200 (-1.8%) and Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) weakened from the open with the tech sector the underperformer in the region as another Apple supplier Japan Display reported a loss for H1 and downgraded its outlook. Furthermore, Japanese exporters suffered from recent flows into the JPY and large automakers were pressured after the US Commerce Department submitted a draft recommendation on potential auto tariffs to the White House. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) and Hang Seng (+0.6%) both opened lower although gradually recovered amid hopes for an improvement in US-China trade relations amid reports that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He spoke by phone on Friday about a deal that could ease trade tensions and with some US officials reportedly expecting China to make a trade offer ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially supported as the broad risk averse tone spurred a flight to safety, but then failed to hold on to the marginal gains as prices mirrored a pullback in T-notes despite stronger 30yr auction results. Top Asian News - Semen Indonesia Buys LafargeHolcim Arm in $1.75 Billion Deal - MUFG Chief Warns on Outlook Even After Raising Profit Target - Hong Kong’s World-Beating IPO Market Starts to Show Cracks - China’s Credit Growth Slumped in October as Debt Sales Slowed All major European indices are in the green, with the DAX (+0.6%) out in front, led by the likes of Lufthansa (+2.4%) who are benefiting from lower oil prices and Bayer (+0.3%) who presented an increase in earnings and confirmed their outlook. FTSE MIB (-0.3%) is lagging its peers weighed on by Telecom Italia (-1.4%) who removed their CEO to the dismay of Vivendi (23.9% shareholder). Italian financial names are also softer ahead of today’s budget re-submission deadline. Sectors are predominantly higher with outperformance in Telecoms post-earnings from Vodafone (+9.0%). Energy names lag, in-fitting with price action in the complex. Regarding individual equities, BTG (+9.2%) are leading the Euro Stoxx 600 after presenting an increase in half year revenue and operating profit. Elior Group (+8.0%) are off best levels but remain supported by news that they have hired advisors to initiate the sale of their catering business. Babcock (-2.5%) are under scrutiny from the Ministry of Defence over their handling of a contract relating to the UK’s Trident Submarines. Top European News
U.K. Wages Rise Most Since 2008 Amid Tight Labor Market
Nyrstar Plunges on Growing Speculation of Debt Restructuring
Italy’s Carige Thrown $360 Million Lifeline by Other Banks
In FX, An almost clear and defining line between the ‘so called’ risk or high beta/yield currencies vs safer-havens, as US-China trade tensions ease somewhat amidst reports of constructive discussions between key officials, while the YUAN also pares some losses with the aid of intervention via local banks overnight (said to have been defending 6.9700 vs the Usd). Hence, the DXY and broad Dollar are off Monday’s peaks, with the latter only maintaining gains/positive momentum vs the JPY above 114.00 and CHF (to a lesser degree) over 1.0100. However, the index remains underpinned around the 97.500 mark and still poised to build on yesterday’s new ytd high at 97.704 given high levels of ongoing uncertainty and global risks, with only one major chart hurdle seen ahead of 98.000 (97.871 Fib resistance). NZD/AUD - Outperforming on the aforementioned US-China ‘understanding’, with the Kiwi staying within striking distance of 0.6750 and the latter not far from 0.7200, but perhaps capped by mega option expiry interest at the strike (1.6 bn), while still feeling the adverse effects of bearish cross-positioning as Aud/Nzd inches further below 1.0700. GBP/EUCAD - All holding up relatively well, or at least consolidating off worst levels, with the Pound retesting 1.2900 vs the Greenback and 0.8700 vs the single currency on hopes if not high expectations of a Brexit breakthrough in time before tomorrow’s deadline. Note, some independent support from Sterling via firm UK wage data, but limited. The Eur is just keeping its head above 1.1200 vs the Usd awaiting Italy’s budget resubmission to the EU that is widely expected to reveal a concession or compromise, but no white flag. Option barriers at the big figure are underpinning the headline pair, though by the same token 1 bn expiry interest at 1.1250 are also keeping upside attempts in check. Looking at the Loonie, only fleeting intraday recoveries in oil prices are keeping the commodity unit pressured and it is struggling to stem losses beyond 1.3250. In commodities, WTI (-2.2%) and Brent (-2.1%) are in the red after a failed intervention by US President Trump who tweeted that oil prices should be lower, and he hopes Saudi and OPEC do not cut oil production. Note, the monthly OPEC report to be published today at 1115GMT. Gold (+0.1%) is marginally up after reaching 16-month highs yesterday. Of note, traders are gathering in Shanghai for Asia Copper Week, as copper prices have fallen by approximately 17% this year, on track for their worst year since 2015. Intra-day, copper and other metals have moved higher following reports that Liu He, China’s top trade negotiator, may visit Washington in preparation for Trump Xi talks. OPEC monthly report: OPEC crude production rose 127k bpd in October to average 32.9mln bpd, according to secondary sources. Crude oil output increased mostly in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola, while production declined in IR Iran, Venezuela, Kuwait and Nigeria. In 2018, oil demand growth is anticipated to increase by 1.5mln bpd, a downward revision of 40k bpd from last month’s projection. For 2019, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.29mln bpd, a minor downward adjustment of 70k bpd from the previous month’s assessment. In terms of the day ahead, the November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. Today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this. US Event Calendar
6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 108, prior 107.9
10am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Conference on Immigration
10am: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on AI and the New Financial Landscape
2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $100.0b deficit, prior $63.2b deficit
2:20pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks at Fintech Conference
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In this morning’s FT, DB’s Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau has penned a hard hitting op-ed on Italy. The crux of the argument is that Europe must cut a grand bargain with Italy and that another costly sovereign debt crisis is inevitable unless the confrontational approach of the EC gives way to greater co-operation. Italy has actually been a frugal member of the single currency with a cumulative primary surplus every year outside of the GFC. However, these surpluses have simply helped finance the interest on the legacy debt and debt/GDP has still climbed. Meanwhile, the associated spending cuts and austerity required to run a primary surplus have lowered the standard of living for the population and led us to the political situation we find ourselves at today. To cut a long story short the grand bargain is in effect the ESM firepower helping to substantially lower Italy’s funding costs, allow for more public expenditure (e.g. infrastructure) in return for Italy undergoing structural reforms. A copy of the unabridged op-ed can be found here or in today’s FT. Interestingly, today is the day the Italians will resubmit their budget after the EC requested a new fiscal plan. We expect no material changes. Our economists yesterday published a piece ( link ) looking at the next steps and conclude that, as contagion has been limited for now, the commission will continue to adopt a tough stance on Italy. It seems inevitable they will recommend an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) in the next few weeks. So for now we’re far away from the grand bargain our Chief Economist thinks will eventually be needed. As well as Italy it feels like there’s a lot to report today, which is not usually the case after a US holiday. Indeed those handful of Monday US holidays each year are usually an excuse for us to have an extra 10-15 minutes lie in the morning safe in the knowledge that not much will have happened the day before. However, the alarm clock was actually set a bit earlier this morning after a difficult start to the week, including a further slump for the once biggest company in the world, and a continuation of the recent under-performance in many of the current largest companies in the world within the tech sector. To recap, Veteran’s Day thin equity trading saw the NASDAQ (-2.78%) and NYSE FANG (-4.11%) indices leading the declines followed closely by the S&P 500 (-1.97%), DOW (-2.32%) and Russell 2000 (-1.98%). Amazingly that is the 9th time this year the big 3 bourses (NASDAQ, S&P 500 and DOW) have fallen at least -1.90% on the same day. It didn’t happen in 2017, and only happened 11 times in 2015 and 2016 combined. The VIX also climbed just over 3pts yesterday to edge back above 20. The tech sector was clearly at the heart of yesterday’s selloff with a -5.04% decline for Apple, sparked by big falls for the company’s suppliers on the back of demand concerns. Apple’s share price is now back below $200 after spending 72 consecutive trading days above that level. That move for Apple resulted in the small matter of $49bn of value being wiped from the company. By comparison General Electric lost just over $5bn yesterday but it was arguably the bigger headline grabber. Indeed the shares slumped -6.88% (-10.02% at the lows) after the company’s CEO, in an interview with CNBC yesterday, failed to reassure market fears about a weakening financial position. The CEO suggested that the company will now urgently sell assets to address leverage. Shares hit levels first seen in 1995 yesterday and have only been lower since, very briefly, during the financial crisis. For a bit of perspective, the market cap of GE now is $69.5bn and it’s the 80th largest company in the S&P 500. Go back to August 2003 and it was the largest company in the index (and regularly the world between 1993-2005) at a market cap of $296bn, with $12bn of daylight to Microsoft in second place. The tech giant has since grown to be a $826bn company well over 10 times the size. GE’s market cap actually peaked in August 2000 at $594bn before tumbling first in the tech crash and then the GFC. In credit GE is a top 15 issuer in both the US and EU indices. It’s recently been downgraded into the BBB bucket but as recently as September was trading 20bps inside BBB- bonds. However they crossed over at the end of that month and now trade up to 50bps wide to the average of the weakest notch of IG. This problem for GE has come at an interesting time as much discussion in recent months has been about BBBs as a % of the size of the HY market. According to Nick Burns in my team, post the downgrades of the automakers in 2005, US BBBs fell to 99% of the size of the HY market from a peak of 170% in 2001. Since 2005, BBBs have been steadily rising as a percentage of HY climbing back above the previous peak in 2014 (175%) before extending that growth to a current level of 274%. It’s more difficult to compare EU BBBs to HY given the infancy of the EUR HY market pre-2004. But from a low of 219% BBBs have grown to 340% of EUR HY. So large BBB companies with a deteriorating credit story are prone to additional widening pressure as investors fear the risks of an eventual downgrade to HY and a swamping of paper into that market. This isn’t helping GE at the moment and may be a dress rehearsal for what happens for weaker and large BBB issuers in the next recession. Brexit headlines were slightly overshadowed but make no mistake, we are getting to the point when binary outcomes are coming closer. Up until the end of last week I thought we’d get a deal agreed this week and then Parliament would be 50/50 as to whether they’d vote in favour of it. However, since last Friday if you've read all the relevant UK press articles its been hard to find much enthusiasm for the expected deal from anyone on any side of the debate within Parliament. At this stage I’m not sure I know what plan B is? Will this be a repeat of TARP back in 2008 and Parliament requires two goes at it? Problem with this is that it’s not clear that the EU is going to offer anything different on a second run at it. In terms of trading, the pound originally pared losses in the early afternoon yesterday as the EU’s Barnier confirmed yesterday that although an agreement had still not been reached the main elements of an exit treaty are ready to present to the UK cabinet according to the FT. Sterling gave up the Barnier related gains on the below Buzzfeed news and fell -0.93% on the day. This news was that Brexit secretary Raab is leading some cabinet ministers towards telling Mrs May that the EU offer on the table is unacceptable. Mrs May herself last night said talks were “in the endgame”. The general view is that unless we have a deal by the end of tomorrow, the November EU summit is unlikely. As we know a deal is pretty much on the table however the issue remains whether or not the UK can run with it first based on whether the cabinet will accept it and secondly whether Parliament can. At the moment we are struggling to get past the first hurdle let alone the second. There was supposed to be a cabinet meeting on Brexit today but its status has been played down. This morning in Asia, markets outside of China/HK are weak but off the lows of the session. The Nikkei (-2.19%), and Kospi (-0.46%) are all down along with most Asian markets but after opening equally weak the Shanghai Comp (+0.86%) and Hang Seng (+0.33%) are rallying hard from the lows. More positive trade noises from US VP Pence and Chinese officials in the last hour have helped. Sentiment didn’t start well though as last night Bloomberg reported that the White House is circulating a draft report by the US Commerce Department over whether to impose tariffs on automobile imports to protect national security while adding that the President Trump is scheduled to meet with senior members of his trade team today to discuss how to proceed on potential tariffs. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 (+0.44%) are pointing towards a more positive start and as an interesting aside the BoJ’s asset holding are now (JPY 553.6 tn) greater than Japan’s nominal GDP (JPY 552.8tn as of end June). To put this in perspective the Fed’s assets are about 20% of US GDP, while the ECB’s holdings are equal to around 40% of the euro-zone economy. This US and Asian weakness follows on from earlier yesterday where Europe also struggled. The STOXX 600 ended the day down -1.01% with the tech sector sinking -3.66%. The DAX (-1.77%) fell even more and it’s amazing that it’s ahead of the FTSE MIB for one of the biggest total return declines in Europe this year of the main bourses (-12.33% vs. -10.37% respectively). Remarkable given that they are probably at the extreme ends economically within Europe. Even oil couldn’t eke out a gain after being up after Asia closed post the Saudi production cut story from Sunday. President Trump’s tweet criticising Saudi Arabia’s planned production cut weighed on prices late in the US session. By the close a near -3% fall had added to what is now an 11-day successive slump, extending the record run we discussed yesterday with data back to 1983. Elsewhere bond markets in Europe (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day) were quiet with Bunds -0.9bps lower in yield and BTPs +3.5bps higher. In terms of the day ahead, shortly after this hits your emails we’ll get the final October CPI revisions in Germany. Soon after that we’ll get the preliminary Q3 wages data in France before the focus turns to here in the UK with the September and October employment stats. The November ZEW survey in Germany follows before we get the October NFIB small business optimism reading in the US and the October monthly budget statement. Away from that it’s a busy day at the ECB with Praet and Lautenschlaeger speaking this morning, before de Guindos speaks this evening. The Fed’s Kashkari, Brainard and Harker are also due to speak at various stages today. As noted above, today also marks the deadline set by the EU for Italy to revise its budget, so expect to see headlines around this.
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